The planning fallacy

As a Project Manager and developer, I have fallen (and continue to fall) into the planning fallacy. This fallacy is the tendency to underestimate the time required to complete a task. In software development, estimates are often overly optimistic, which creates pressure to meet poorly calculated deadlines.

A common strategy to mitigate this error is to add a "time cushion" to cover potential delays. However, in work teams, this extra time is often interpreted as a license to relax, which can lead to a false sense of security: "No problem, we have more time." This only aggravates the situation, generating excesses of confidence and delays that could have been avoided.

What is the solution?

A single solution does not exist. Every team and every project is different.

How do I approach it?

In some cases, I choose not to communicate the actual deadline to the team, but rather to establish an internal development deadline. Although this tactic may seem overbearing, I have seen it work.

Another option is to implement more rigorous and frequent monitoring of team activities and tasks.

The risk?

Excessive monitoring can create an unnecessary level of stress, especially on less experienced teams, which can affect their performance.

In summary:

The pressure to meet objectives on time is key to avoiding delays. At the same time, having a margin of safety is beneficial. It is essential to respect the established deadlines and always leave space (public or private) for possible unforeseen events. The balance between pressure and flexibility is what really defines good planning.